Considering how long it takes from announcement to actual availability, 2026 is much more believable. I mean look at Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake - how long it took for them to be actually available. And Arrow Lake is still only available with 3 K-processors, while everything else is delayed...
It always goes like this:
1) Intel says "Panther Lake is ready in H1 2025"
2) Intel waits and showcases its products in fall 2025
3) Hardware manufacturers wait for specific computer show dates (CES 2026)
4) You have to wait another 3+ months for the product to become actually available
It's delay after delay after delay. The whole announcement-availability-cycle has become slow and annoying as F---
Thus I ask you (anyone): Why should it be different with Panther Lake? Why should it be different with Nova Lake? I tell you what: it won't be different. Because the same waiting and delaying cycle repeats all over again. Panther Lake will come earliest 2026. Hardware sellers will want to wait again for CES 2026 (because they always do) and then you have to wait yet again a couple of months.
And because everything takes so f--- long, consider this: there is a significant chance that Arrow lake will will receive a refresh (despite them claiming it won't) - simply because it takes them so f---cking long to bring their new technology to the market. The same story happened with Raptor Lake 13th and 14th generation. Because it took them so long to bring new technology to the market they made refresh of the 13th generation. They actually didn't planned that, but it was easier to bringt to the market because all the delivery roads were already set and didn't require many changes. Why should it be different this time? According to them Arrow Lake is only planned for a 1 year existence? Hilarious and unbelievable. They are not that fast. An Arrow Lake Refresh could be decent though as there is a chance they integrate Xe2 graphics.
Lastly... I thought AMD was bad in these matteres (from announcement to actual availability) but the truth is - it's now the exact same issue with Intel. Maybe it wasn't in the past, but it definitely is for a couple of years now.