I want it to succeed, but I really doubt. I worked in government organizations, you really need to apply an enormous amount of efforts to change all these established for years processes, tied to Windows. Their performance will drop significantly and it will take 10+ years to switch. Ideally they will need some dev team to tailor ,whatever linux distro they choose, for their needs. I hope that they understand that.
More likely they will struggle and wait until Trump is replaced and new president becomes friendly with EU again and they will return to MS..