Quote from: dsadasdsa on February 05, 2022, 18:21:27
That Twitter comment is at least funny if not stupid. There have been 20k accidents in normal cars but how many normal cars are on the road vs Tesla fsd? Also, let's bring Tesla fsd on some tricky roads not on highways and calm city streets because there accidents don't happen even with human drivers. I like the idea of fsd but let's not get too carried away.

The math is easy and dramatically revealing. It's surprising that people shut off their brains and ignore the numbers to fit their biases.
The Twitter comment was actually EXTREMELY conservative.

First Here's Some General Information:
   • There were over 276 Million registered cars on the road in the US in 2020 according to the NHTSA
      ○ There are 68,000 vehicles with FSD BETA installed
         § Subtracting the 68,000 still leaves us with 276 million registered non-FSD cars
From the US NHTSA 2020 data:
   • Fatalities
      ○ Total
         § 38,680
   • Injuries
      ○ Total
         § 473,845
   • Injuries plus Deaths  (I+D)
      ○ Total
         § 512,525
   • With FSD BETA there have been no reported  injuries or deaths (I/D). However, for fun, lets count this article's subject as 1 I/D.

Getting Incident Rates for Normal Cars
   • To get the rate of injury or death per vehicle, we divide the I/D number by the number of registered cars
      ○ Normal Cars
         § Total number of deaths plus injuries (I/D)
            □ 512,525
               ® Divided by
                  ◊ 276 million
                     } Equals a rate of incident at
                        – 0.0018569746376812
That's 1.86 out of every 1,000 cars getting into a I/D incident per year

Calculating death rate per Injury:
      ○ 0 Deaths or Injuries for FSD BETA, however we are doing a hypothetical 1
      ○ 38,680 deaths for normal cars
         § Divided by
            □ 473,875 injuries for normal cars
               ® 8 deaths per 100 injuries (0.08163 death scale multiplier) for normal cars

We will need to use this death multiplier to estimate current FSD BETA deaths at scale of 276 million FSD BETA cars, replacing all cars in US

   • Incident rate for FSD BETA
      ○ Since we are hypothetically counting this incident as an I/D, (which it isn't) it would be Tesla's first with FSD BETA (BETA meaning not ready, testing)
      ○ There are ~68,500 Registered Teslas with FSD BETA on the US roads
         § There have been 0 accidents or injuries, however we are counting this article's subject as one for funsies:
            □ Total number of hypothetical incidents
               ® 1
                  ◊ Divided by
                     } 68,500 Registered FSD BETA cars
                        – Equals
                           ◊ .0000145985401459854
                              ◊ With the hypothetical, that's currently 1.46 incidents out of every 100,000 vehicles!
                                 w Even with one incident it would be currently almost 10X better! currently 9.6X)
(0.0001401449275362319/0.0000145985401459854=9.59992753623189)

Now you can see why the negative articles are ramping up, because they are just about to surpass their first goal of 10X. There are many who want to see Tesla fail so they can either make a financial gain or appease their ego.

Playing with the numbers, Scaling current FSD BETA up to 276 million cars:
   } If all 276,000,000 Registered cars in the US used Tesla FSD BETA in it's current condition, not factoring in the loss of non-FSD BETA drivers (which would bring this number dramatically lower):
   • 276,000,000 FSD BETA vehicles at an incident rate of 0.0000145985401459854
      ○ 276,000,000*0.0000145985401459854 = 4,029.197 injuries or deaths per year
   § Estimated breakdown with death per injury multiplier.
~3701 Injuries (4029-328)
~328 deaths per year (4029*0.08163)

– How much better?
   - This is with FSD scaled to 276 million cars:
      - 473,875 normal car injuries/~3701 FSD = 128.0397 times less
      - 38,680 normal car deaths/~328 FSD = ~117.9268 times less
512,525 normal car total/~4029 FSD = 127.209 times less, total

Overall, you can see that a 9.6x decrease in incident rate leads to over 100X decrease in actual incidents.

AND these cars are in every state, driving in every condition.

My giddy aunt!  From the amount of click-bait headline coverage this incident has attracted, you'd think the car wiped out a bus queue of pensioners and children or something!  It's a plastic bollard, millions of which get damaged every year.  Get over it.

judging from video you provided on your own, can't you see  all the reasons for what happens!??

That Twitter comment is at least funny if not stupid. There have been 20k accidents in normal cars but how many normal cars are on the road vs Tesla fsd? Also, let's bring Tesla fsd on some tricky roads not on highways and calm city streets because there accidents don't happen even with human drivers. I like the idea of fsd but let's not get too carried away.